“The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality” (with Gita Gopinath)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2026, Vol. 40, No. 3, pp. 123-144.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Replication: JEP and Git Repo (for older versions)
Updated Figures (through May 2026):
- Figure 1: Statutory and Actual Tariff Rates, Overall
- Figure 3a: Statutory and Actual Tariff Rates, by Sector
- Figure 3b: Statutory and Actual Tariff Rates, by Country
“Stablecoins After GENIUS: Private Money, Public Debt, and the Global Dollar” (with Nellie Liang)
In The American Economy in a New Era, edited by Melissa S. Kearney and Luke Pardue. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute, 2026.
T-Bill Net Demand Calculator: Online Tool.
Coverage: The Wall Street Journal.
“Corporate Debt Structure with Home and International Currency Bias” (with Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger)
IMF Economic Review, 2024, p.1-24.
“The Rise of Niche Consumption” (with Joe Vavra)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2023, 15(3), p.224-264.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Coverage: Featured in Planet Money on National Public Radio, The New York Times, Marginal Revolution Blog, and Bloomberg.
“Exchange Rate Reconnect” (with Andrew Lilley, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022, 104(4), p.845-855.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Coverage: Featured in Marginal Revolution.
“Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens” (with Antonio Coppola, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2021, 136(3), p.1499-1556.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
Code, Data, and Replication: The Global Capital Allocation Project.
Coverage: Featured in Bloomberg, The Economist Magazine and The Financial Times (here and here).
“Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy” (with Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, and Jenny Tang)
American Economic Review: Insights, 2021, 3(1), p.19-34.
Short Version: Paper and Appendix.
Coverage: Featured in The New York Times (here and here), The Wall Street Journal (here and here), The Financial Times (here and here), The Washington Post, IMF Blog, HBS Working Knowledge, CNN (Jake Tapper’s State of the Union), and Forbes.
“How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?” (with Jonathan Dingel)
Journal of Public Economics: 2020, Volume 189.
Preprint: Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, 2020, Issue 1, p.16-24.
Data: Results by City, Industry, and Occupation.
Code: Replication Package.
Coverage: Featured in The Wall Street Journal (here and here), The New York Times (here, here, and here), Financial Times (here and here), The Economist (here, here, and here), Reuters (here and here), BBC, The Hill, and Business Insider. Column in Pro-Market Blog.
“International Currencies and Capital Allocation” (with Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger)
Journal of Political Economy, 2020, Volume 128, Issue 6.
Winner of AQR Insight Award
Short Video Presentation (5 mins): web link.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Replication: Replication Data.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
Coverage: Column in VoxEU.org. Featured in The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, NBER Digest, Pensions&Investments, World Economic Forum, Marketwatch (here and here), and La Nacion.
“The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies” (with Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger)
AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2019, Volume 109, p.521-526.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Replication: Replication Package.
“Accounting for Factorless Income” (with Loukas Karabarbounis)
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2018, Volume 33, p.167-228.
Video: link.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
Replication: Download Zip File.
Coverage: Featured in The Financial Times and Bloomberg. Columns in Pro-Market Blog and VoxEU.org.
“The Global Rise of Corporate Saving” (with Peter Chen and Loukas Karabarbounis)
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2017, 89, p.1-19.
Data: CKN Online Dataset.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
Coverage: Featured in The Economist (here and here), Slate Magazine, Project Syndicate, The Washington Post, and the Chicago Magazine.
Guest Contribution in EconBrowser.
Parts of this paper update our earlier working paper “Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Saving”
“Obstfeld and Rogoff’s International Macro Puzzles: A Quantitative Assessment” (with Jonathan Eaton and Sam Kortum)
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016, 72, p.5-23.
Note and Codes for Simplified Version of Model: Note. Codes.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
“Trade and the Global Recession” (with Jonathan Eaton, Sam Kortum, and John Romalis)
American Economic Review, 2016, 106(11), p.3401-3438.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Note and Codes for Simplified Version of Model: Note. Codes.
Previous Version: Static Version.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
Coverage: Column in VoxEU.org. Featured in Marginal Revolution and Econbrowser.
“The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia” (with Alberto Cavallo and Roberto Rigobon)
IMF Economic Review, 2015, 63(2), p.281-297. Lead Article.
Data and Replication: Raw Data (via Harvard/MIT Dataverse). Replication Materials.
Coverage: Column in VoxEU.org. Featured in Real World Economics Review Blog, Daily Mail, and Blog-Illusio (in French).
“Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate” (with Alberto Cavallo and Roberto Rigobon)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2014, 129(2), p.529-595.
Data: Raw Data (via Harvard/MIT Dataverse).
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
Coverage: Column in VoxEU.org. Featured in The New York Times, Forbes, Bloomberg, Diario Vasco (in Spanish), Forsal (in Polish), and El Confidencial (in Spanish).
“The Global Decline of the Labor Share” (with Loukas Karabarbounis)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2014, 129(1), p.61-103.
Data and Replication: KN Labor Share Dataset. Replication Materials.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
Coverage: Featured in The Economist (here and here), The Financial Times, The Financial Times (Undercover Economist), The New York Times, The New York Times (Economix), Houston Chronicle, Bloomberg, Bloomberg (The Ticker), The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, and Institutional Investor.
“Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises” (with Gita Gopinath)
American Economic Review, 2014, 104(3), p.793-831.
Appendix: Online Appendix.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
Coverage: Featured in Foco Económico (in Spanish).
“Discussant Comments on ‘The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share’ by Elsby, Hobijn, and Sahin”
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2013, p.56-61.
Slides: Presentation Slides.
“On Deficits and Unemployment” (with Jonathan Eaton and Sam Kortum)
Revue Economique, 2013, 64(3), p.405-420.
“Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009” (with Gita Gopinath and Oleg Itskhoki)
IMF Economic Review, 2012, 60(3), p.303-328. Lead Article.
Coverage: Column in VoxEU.org.
“A State-Dependent Model of Intermediate Goods Pricing”
Journal of International Economics, 2011, 85(1), p.1-13. Lead Article.
“Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore” (with John Fernald)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3(2), p.29-74.
“Stickiness, Synchronization, and Passthrough in Intrafirm Trade Prices”
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2010, 57(3), p.295-308.
“The Impact of Post-9/11 Visa Policies on Travel to the United States” (with Phillip Swagel)
Journal of International Economics, 2009, 78(1), p.86-99.